The U.S. economy appears to have withstood a set of blows -- major declines in equity markets, a sharp retrenchment in investment spending, and the tragic terrorist attacks of last September -- that in previous business cycles almost surely would have induced a severe contraction,
A good part of this expansion is a direct function of the decline in real equity premiums. That cannot go on indefinitely.
It's too soon in the fourth quarter to make very many judgments, but despite the fact that we clearly have been shocked by the tragedy of September 11, there is no evidence at this stage from the data we have to date that there will be a decline in the fourth quarter,
The housing boom will inevitably simmer down, ... As part of that process, house turnover will decline from currently historic levels, while home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease.
The ratio of the number of workers contributing to social security to the number of beneficiaries has declined to the point where maintaining the annuity value of benefits on retirement at a level well in excess of accumulated contributions has become extremely unlikely.
I think that the market is ultimately driven by real forces, ... Once you get a decline started, it's not clear whether people use that as a reason to sell or buy.
Despite the combination of somewhat slower growth of productivity in recent quarters, higher energy prices, and a decline in the exchange rate for the dollar, core measures of consumer prices have registered only modest increases,