Alan Ruskin Quotations

Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.

We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.

The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.

We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious.

Non-farm payroll numbers of over 300,000 are pretty much consistent with economic growth of about 4 percent, (and) that's way above trend,

My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.

My gut says the Fed doesn't have too many bullets left to fire, and therefore they have to use them sparingly, and we'll see a (quarter percentage point) cut at the next meeting.

Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.

I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.

I don't think people want to stand in the way of this even if they believe there's underlying value. With equities giving it a kick, you're getting more selling pressure as well.

He seems to be more forthright in seeing a willingness to cut interest rates in the future than expected, ... It is uncharacteristically blunt.

(Greenspan's) comments on the economy regaining traction included a range of examples, but all of them have caveats attached, and none are that convincing,

I think the only clear sign that would really tell you that inflation should be rising at this point is, of course, the rise in hourly earnings, ... But at this stage, from what we've seen, corporations seem to be taking it in terms of lower profit margins and, therefore, not necessarily pushing up prices.

It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak.

I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes),

Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.

It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.

While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.

The overall trend in orders is going to be south over time, ... I wouldn't use this as indicative of some impending recovery in the manufacturing sector.

we still don't have any clear signals that inflation is on the way up.

The data will keep the Fed on edge and provides fodder for the Fed hawks.

The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle.

The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained.

We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.

To some extent, the bond market's trading pattern has not been resolved of late. This might provide some resolution, and I think it is going to be resolved in terms of higher yields,

Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.

There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.

These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.

These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,

Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.

The broader picture is there's some slowing in housing. It's certainly dollar-negative news.

As outgoing Fed chairman, he's clearly concerned about the asset cycle and the prospect the low concern on credit risk is going to be associated with a decline in asset prices down the track,

There was not much of a dollar reaction because her comments were not terribly fresh.

There's a sense that the world is changing, no question. But it's the size of the change that matters.

It's been such an erratic number of late that it's pretty tough for the market to trade on it,

It was slightly weaker than expectations, but manufacturing is still healthy. It confirms that the economy is still ticking along.

It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization,

The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,'

It's certainly a good sign as far as future pipeline inflation is concerned, ... The goods side of the inflation equation is very encouraging.

There's talk Bush might actually eventually move towards drawing in someone from Wall Street, which the market might quite like really.

There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'

Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.

The labor market has not accelerated to the extent one might expect, judging from past cycles, and we probably won't see evidence of it again in the December numbers.

The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,

In the aggregate, the economy has clearly stalled, and at  best grew close to zero in the second quarter,

Clearly the economy had a good head of steam on it right through the hurricane period.

His comments fit with the basic idea of a pause at a 5% or perhaps 5.25% funds rate - more likely the former, but with no presumption that this will be the peak in rates.

Housing may be topping at the same time as consumer confidence is hurting from energy prices.

For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.

The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish.

All in all this is very much second-tier data, but the overriding impression is that any slowdown is at worst modest,

The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.

The euro led the move ... and the dollar's weakness is broad-based, which is important but I'm skeptical that we're going to get a lot of (euro) upside here.

The economy is generally slowing for a wide variety of reasons -- energy is one, but also the stimulus is wearing off.

The market will focus the most on this deflator number, and it is worth 1/32nd or 2/32nds (in price fall) on the back end of the curve.