Anthony Chan Move Quotations

I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.

Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)

The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.

To the extent that consumer sentiment reacts to movements in the unemployment rate rather than the meager increase in non-farm payrolls, we have to take this ... report as delivering good news to the troops.

The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.

The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.

International investing offers the opportunity for diversification. What you want in a diverse portfolio is the ability to have some markets move differently from other markets. You get a much higher rate of return with lower risk.

In other words, before the end of 2002, the Fed should signal that their upward rate moves were just a warm-up for what we can expect in 2003.

I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.

What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.