What's different this time is that there is a lot more stimulus now than any time in the past 50 or 60 years. I've never seen a period with so much help from both the fiscal and monetary side.
There's a very good likelihood we'll see the sector come back as rebuilding takes place and the economy starts to react to the huge stimulus in the pipeline.
The number tells me a recession is coming, but it will be relatively mild in the wake of all the stimulus coming. But I would caution investors not to be so complacent as to think this could be bottom. It's going to be a lot uglier in the fourth quarter.
In view of the stimulus already out there, I think the Fed will finish out the year by raising rates until the end.
The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.
All this stimulus is going to work, ... just not overnight. It's probably going to take a couple of quarters to work itself out.