Brian Bethune Quotations

Maybe we should all be praying for a warm winter because that might ease the pain.

Mortgage purchase applications continue to track downwards, suggesting that most of the expected pop in housing sales in January was weather-related.

New auctions will satisfy an unusual coincidence of needs on the supply and demand side of the fixed-income debt markets.

Business investment is going to be one of the principal drivers of growth in 2006. The consumer will still be there ... (but) certainly won't be as ebullient as the last four years.

Gains in employment and the stock market continue to support confidence. Household income is expected to grow at rates that will sustain growth in consumer spending.

Further gains in employment combined with better levels for consumer confidence overall are setting the stage for very solid consumption gains in the first quarter of 2006.

We are expecting to see some pressure on inflation. Companies are going to take advantage of strong demand to at least cover their cost increases.

There is an imbalance in terms of the demand and supply of energy which continues to be satisfied, or is increasingly satisfied, by external sources of energy products. Now we have a situation that has been every more complicated because of a domestic supply shock.

Recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum. This should provide the underpinnings for respectable growth in exports.

Manufacturing is gaining strength heading into the second quarter. We have a level of capacity use that justifies more business investment.

That was a gust of wind in the spinnaker.

We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.

With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.

The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.

The only consolation to farmers is that the price of seafood will go up further. So when production gets back on track, fish and shrimp producers can use the profits to recover their lost costs.

The expected drop in aircraft orders is strictly month-to- month noise and does not have any impact on the outlook for growth.

We saw a big rebound in corporate profits and that's a good signal for continued business investment. That generally leads to hiring, which will help keep consumption going.

There are reports of solid underlying demand for 30-year bonds from pension funds and insurance companies.

The gradual cooling off of the housing market will be welcome news at the Federal Reserve.

While the record drop in the top level index spells welcome relief from the painful post-hurricane energy price spikes in September, continued pressure on the core index over the next several months will keep the Federal Reserve vigilant on the inflation watch.

We'll have very solid overall job gains that will punctuate the start of more normal activity in terms of employment,

What this tells us in terms of the fundamentals is the road looks fine.

Consumption spending will continue to plod ahead in the second quarter.

Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.

There's so much momentum coming early into this quarter that an excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.

The risk to crops and farms won't be as significant if it loses force, ... When you look at the lessons from Katrina, the eventual damage to agriculture was less than feared. The department of agriculture actually revised up its estimates of production in the state after Katrina passed.

The service sector is picking up some momentum. An excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.

The service sector is picking up some momentum.

Pressure to bump prices up, or levy temporary freight surcharges, will become more intense in September,

Activity in the manufacturing sector picked up early in the second quarter, in line with strong underlying fundamentals in the economy and stronger overseas demand. We can look forward to solid overall output growth in the second quarter of 2006.

Demand is strong enough for companies to raise prices. This will keep the Fed's bias toward higher rates intact through the second quarter of 2006.

Demand for capital goods in overseas markets is expected to remain firm in the months ahead as cyclical recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum.

The budget deficit is like gaining weight. You are not really aware of it until at some point, all of a sudden you can't do what you want to do because you are heavier. Interest rates go up and slow things down. Then you go to your check up and the doctor tells you you got to lose 25 pounds.

They're basically signaling, 'Expect one more rate hike here' and that's what we are basically expecting.

The warm weather in January will provide a temporary upward boost to housing construction, but activity is expected to taper off in February.

This is in line with our expectation that demand for new housing would 'cool off' towards the end of 2005 and in early 2006 as higher short-term interest rates, driven by the Fed, would ultimately translate into higher long-term borrowing rates.

Services industries kicked off the second quarter with very impressive momentum.

Existing sales peaked nationally back in September and have been coming down. The Northeast is following that pattern.

The Fed has been kind of on autopilot here for quite a while, ... Now all of a sudden they're going to have to start doing some work. I don't think a robotic response is appropriate here.

In terms of economic growth, the fundamentals are clearly on the side of the U.S.. We don't think there's going to be a lot of additional momentum, but even if (the dollar) treads water, it's still going to be an attractive investment.

Generally speaking, when it is over 75 percent of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95 percent of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.

If housing and stock prices go down, people will respond by increasing the flow of savings. If they have to save more to meet retirement objectives, then they'll have to cut down on consumption.

The major markets overseas - Europe, Japan and Asia - have fairly solid underlying momentum. Japan is certainly improving and Europe is more like the Queen Elizabeth slowly turning around.

The manufacturing sector continues to steam-roll ahead. The stage is set for solid growth in the second quarter.

The economy is doing pretty well now in terms of momentum.