Bruce Steinberg Rate Quotations

October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.

If the unemployment rate rises through July, as is entirely possible, the initial tightening will take place during the fall.

The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.

The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point.

The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.