If the housing market is cooling at the same time as gasoline prices are picking up that could combine to create a perfect storm for consumer spending. This is something the Federal Reserve will watch very closely.
I think people are starting to worry about winter heating bills, especially now the weather is starting to turn.
It did come in stronger, so that's probably good news in terms of consumer momentum as we go into the new year.
It definitely is pointing in the direction of further rate hikes.
We've got tightening resources but modest ... pressure on wages. So no reason to panic for the Fed, but certainly more reason for them to take rates a little higher.
We had a strong start to the year, partly weather and consumer related, and now we're getting indications for the second quarter and they're looking moderate.
What it will do is push up first-quarter growth probably close to 5.0 percent, so a nice rebound from the fourth quarter.
Some people were concerned after the revisions yesterday and were maybe looking for bigger increases in the core (today) and there's a little bit of rallying, but it's very, very minor.
The big theme in the fourth quarter is going to be consumption spending, that is the real driver.
As long as the economic momentum remains strong, we believe they will still lean against inflation pressures with another rate hike.
This is something the Fed is going to keep an eye on as it's domestic prices that they're worried about, the domestic pace of activity, and it definitely is pointing in the direction of further rate hikes.
A lot of it has to do with the labor market, the employment question is where it shows up. People are disenchanted with employment growth.
It was a warm month, no snow storms or anything like that. In fact, we might see some give-back in February because we already see the first chain store sales for the week ending Saturday were down because of the snow storm.
It's a very small decline. It's definitely settling in a downtrend and all the information from the surveys and from that kind of data point to the labor market stabilizing and improving and we should see that in the payroll numbers.
It's a very small decline, ... It's definitely settling in a downtrend and all the information from the surveys and from that kind of data point to the labor market stabilizing and improving and we should see that in the payroll numbers.
It (the jobless rate) is probably at or slightly below the level the Fed is thinking is full employment, so it will strengthen their resolve to lean against inflation pressures. We expect another quarter-point hike in March.
The labor market has been robust. In the last month, we got a good payrolls report so that probably helped.
The Fed seems to think that this is a one-time adjustment.
For the Fed, continuing 25-basis-point rate hikes seem to be the best bet.
The unemployment rate was the most important. It will strengthen (the Fed's) resolve to lean against inflation pressures.
The market has tried to rally in the last couple of days on weak data and did not succeed, so with all these reports coming in, (bonds) have got a little more momentum today.