We have seen a recovery in the gold price and commodity currencies have consolidated slightly off their lows, which bodes well for rand resilience. The rand could trade closer to 6.20/22/US$.
The rand is coming under a bit of pressure on the back of very strong retail sales data out of the US, but I'm not expecting it to weaken too much further given that the Budget tomorrow is taking centre stage with the locals. It should remain in a 6.12 to 6.20 range.
We would expect the rand to test levels of 6.22/23 to the dollar and consolidate around there.
Speculators feel comfortable again about buying the rand and we're seeing an unwinding of weakness early last week, which was not fundamentally based.
It's mainly the commodity play that's keeping the rand resilient.
Supposedly a corporate order went through the market this morning. It squeezed a couple of guys who were sitting short dollars and triggered a few stops and the rand popped up to the top (weakened).
If you look at the historical volatilities of the rand you'll find they have declined through the year.
If you look at the historical volatilities of the rand you'll find that they have declined through the year.