Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern.
I don't view the market as risky or dangerous even in spite of more Fed tightening. We have enough value in U.S. and international growth stocks. What's holding stocks back right now is uncertainty about interest rates, not valuation.
We can't believe any trend right now, until the issues tied to this conflict are resolved. Unfortunately, in this kind of market there's going to be no clear direction. We're going to be in this holding pattern for the next few weeks, at least.
There has been this continual debate as to whether higher oil prices are inflationary or a restraint on growth. This year, the bond market has signaled that it is inflationary.
Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
It seems like the market is obsessing on this bond market fallout, which was somewhat precipitated by the move to raise (interest rates) in Japan. A lot of the fuel that has been used to invest in this bond market has been derived from 'easy money' in Japan.
It seems like the market is obsessing on this bond market fallout.
The bond market is still behind the inflation curve. The inflation story continues to chip away at our economy and it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker.
The market is starting to shift back to quality stocks.