Jay Bryson Quotations

Most people expect that the Fed will hike short-term rates more than the 10-year (yield) will go up this year.

My expectation was the trade deficit would increase anyway into the low 60 (billion dollar a month) range. A $70 billion (monthly trade gap) sounds like a stretch, but we could be looking at the mid to high 60s now.

Obviously, this quarterly swing is a one-off event.

Obviously they're getting a lot of flak from Congress and the Europeans as well. It was going to happen at some point anyway. It probably happened sooner than it would have if Congress and the administration hadn't said anything,

I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase.

If things start to go really badly in Iraq, and we have a long conflict and have to destroy a lot of infrastructure, that would be very dollar negative because we will get stuck holding a lot of the tab for that, at a time when we have budget deficits going out as far as the eye can see.

People are starting to hedge bets. Obviously it's an uncertain time,

The Achilles heel of the U.S. economy is its dependence on foreign capital...which may be the only way that Europe can keep American unilateralism in check,

I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession.

When that happens, the dollar will begin to depreciate.

The deficit's probably going to get bigger in the near term.

We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger.

The real surprise is the strength in exports. These sharp increases in computer-related exports corroborate recent U.S. industrial-production data that show marked strength in high-tech industries.

The only thing that the Fed can do to correct the current- account imbalance is to slow the U.S. economy. If you are adding up reasons for why the Fed will keep on tightening, the current-account deficit is on that list.

Assuming the spark does not happen, it can go on much longer, ... Nobody wants it to stop. We don't want to contemplate sharply higher rates and prices. The Japanese and Chinese don't want to contemplate it either.

European governments have a card they could play in the current crisis: token assistance in the rebuilding of Iraq, which would largely stick the United States and the United Kingdom with the entire tab.

Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.

People tend to look at core to get a look at overall strength and weakness of the economy,

As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column,

That sliced off about a half a percentage point in growth.

Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing.

It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.

It shows the labor market is continuing to stabilize.

That's something that the Fed has signaled it is looking at right now with resources getting stretched in the economy.

It's very easy to get the trade gap to narrow, have a recession in the United States to cut spending here. But I don't think anyone wants that to happen.

Once interest rate differentials begin to narrow, U.S. securities will lose some of their luster to foreign investors.

An upward surprise in the (producer price index and consumer price index) would be bad for stocks ... but if you get benign readings (this) week, that gives the Fed the ability to be able to pause if necessary.

That seems like a tall feat right now.

The insurance payments are going to go away. The outlook remains very bleak.

I imagine we'll move into low 60's (billion dollar range), maybe even mid-60's, in next few months,

In general, a rising rate environment slows down growth, so most companies are not going to go as good as when rates are low.

Imports are about twice as large as exports, so just to stabilize the deficit, exports have to grow twice as fast. That's a pretty tall order. Then you throw oil on top of it.

I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish.

If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.

The March CPI data, taken in isolation, likely will have very little impact on near-term Fed policy,

The headline number was weaker than what people expected. But when you look down into the underlying details, it's not as weak as what that headline number would suggest.

The import data are consistent with an economy that is struggling to find its footing.

Although durable goods orders bounced back last month, the turnaround is not strong or broad-based enough to prevent the Fed from easing at the Dec. 11 meeting if it feels that another rate cut is appropriate.

The economy in the third quarter had a fair amount of momentum and oil prices were skyrocketing. You are going to see some $60 billion trade figures if for no other reason than the price of oil.

The markets are reacting to the shock of seeing a jump in import prices. It raises concerns about inflationary pressures, and higher interest rates down the road.

The lower cost of Chinese goods means we can spend more on other goods and services.