The performance of the leading index is suggestive of continued momentum or growth in the spring.
The overall Leading Economic Indicators began to edge down in July, suggesting the economy was losing steam this summer and would continue to slow down in the fall.
The recovery in the leading index could indicate that the economy is poised for growth by late summer. There appears to be enough economic demand to end the slide in industrial production, though no strong rebound appears in sight.
The strong signal from the indicators means that the recession could be over soon. Three successive monthly increases, each larger than the one before, bring the level of the leading series above the pre-recession peak.
The significant increase in the leading indicators during the last six months, tempered only by the financially related pause in February, points to forward momentum in this expansion.
The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.
The latest leading indicator readings suggest some slowing in the pace of economic activity through this summer.
The leading indicators are cooling off from the rapid pace registered at the end of last year. This is not the kind of performance to be expected when gross domestic product grew by 5.2 percent, as it did in the second quarter of 2000.
The leading economic indicators suggest moderate growth into the fall.
The Leading Economic Indicators have been anything but consistent -- flat to declining from July through September, and recovering in October and November.
The leading economic indicators began to lose a little momentum before the hurricanes and flooding. Domestically, business investment appeared to be headed toward a moderate pace in the third quarter.
The Leading Economic Index suggests that this period of slower growth will probably continue for the next few months.
The Leading Economic Index, however, rose sharply in three of the last four months. That could be a signal of a faster pace this spring.