James McCormack Quotations

When you've got credit growth that already exceeds (gross domestic product growth), that's a lot of new credit." ()

We were always skeptical about how fast consumer recovery (would) be. It had been pretty slow. This year, we've revised our growth forecast for the Korean economy to 5 percent based on strong fourth-quarter numbers that we saw, particularly in consumption. The export sector still looks positive." ()

There is a question about how long you can do that, but it is not as if money supply is growing too fast." ()

There are two things that we're still concerned about. One is the structure of public finances notwithstanding the fiscal performance in 2005 and two is the political outlook and the effect that politics might have on public finance." ()

So if the effective interest rate on Philippines government debt goes up, it just takes more of their revenues to service their debts, so these are issues that really do need to be addressed." ()

What would be under consideration is what to do with the negative outlook - whether to revert that back to stable, or to retain the negative outlook, or to downgrade the credit. But upgrading (the rating) from a negative outlook is not something that happens very frequently, and I don't expect that would happen in the case of the Philippines." ()

While the e-VAT and the impeachment issue have both been resolved favorably in recent days, we are maintaining our negative outlook on the Philippines' ratings." ()

We are a bit cautious about the two-percentage-point increase because of the risks - primarily political risks - that it might not be implemented. One thing we learned from this is that there is always a potential for delays in its implementation." ()

The delayed e-VAT detracted from the overall credibility of the fiscal reform program, and we will wait until the e-VAT is implemented fully, including the rate increase from 10 percent to 12 percent scheduled for January 2006, before considering its positive effects on government revenues." ()

We are starting to see maybe a turning in the housing market in the US. And if the US consumer retracts a little, we would expect to slow down in the US in the second half of the year. That translates into a slowdown in Asia as well." ()

The Philippines is one country where politics matter." ()

Those sovereigns in the midst of political turmoil also have the weakest growth rates in emerging Asia, and further downward revisions to the growth forecast may be necessary." ()

We are still comfortable. In a BB range, we do have some tolerance for political noise." ()

Asia's political backdrop has recently become less favorable for growth." ()

Notwithstanding ongoing regional integration with China, growth in Asia remains highly leveraged to external demand, and particularly the US consumer, whom we believe to be overstretched." ()

The more of these events there are, inevitably the weaker she becomes. Surviving a crisis in leadership doesn't necessarily strengthen a leader." ()

This is one of the countries where politics matter and it is central to our assessment. Politics affects economic policy." ()

They do a pretty good job of getting people in who are quite capable. They have a deep bench." ()

You don't see much opposition to her policy initiatives. I think it's more of a power struggle than a policy struggle." ()

The reserves are more than adequate. Maybe it is becoming excessive." ()

The biggest challenge for the central bank is to control the potential inflation that comes along with the buildup in reserves." ()

The continuing strength of China's external sector, including the increase in its foreign exchange reserves and exports, are a positive. However, an increase in reserves which we expect to eventually reach a trillion US dollars, will not necessarily lead to a ratings upgrade." ()

If the political turmoil continues, we may need to revise growth rates in countries like Thailand." ()

These are positive numbers for the Philippines. We have to make sure that the value-added tax increase is implemented and fiscal follow up is done in the medium term to further improve revenue." ()

The entire episode really damaged fiscal policy credibility in the Philippines." ()

The good 2005 fiscal performance and 2006 fiscal outlook, together with the more settled political environment, warrant the change in outlook." ()

The fruit of previous investment is being reflected in the slower import figures, and that's good for medium-term growth." ()

The combined growth and external sector strengths allow Chinese policy makers to better address the country's structural economic challenges, and they have been taking the opportunity to do so." ()