Kevin Norrish Quotations

US product markets remain extremely weak at present, with most of that weakness focused in gasoline markets.

U.S. oil inventories have risen rapidly, relative to normal patterns over the last four weeks. At the level of politics and geopolitical risks, the shadows have continued to gather and darken.

One question would be whether it would be necessary for an increase in production in order to make up for Nigeria. I have a feeling, they probably view that as a bonus.

People were expecting builds across the board. On that basis the market reaction that we have had is not surprising...It looks like product strength has the potential to return.

News that four foreign oil workers held hostage by Nigerian militants have been released (was) helping prices to ease back a bit.

If it weren't for the market's focus on short-term inventory data, the market would be a lot higher. We're retracing, even if the move upwards was not as big as it could have been.

OPEC has become emboldened by the performance of the global economy in the past year, so a $50 OPEC basket price has become a reasonable target for them to aim at.

Paradoxically, the price strength of the past couple of days makes a production cut ... less likely, ... If OPEC does cut production it will be reacting to perceived weakness in market fundamentals later on this year.

Markets have already priced in a fairly sizeable production cut.

Whilst the immediate impact on European energy prices has been negligible, the dispute has served to emphasize the dependence of Western Europe on Russian gas supplies and the issue has the potential to keep European gas consumers on edge for some time.

There are not enough firm projects on stream to meet 1.5 million bpd (demand growth).

We would expect the potential for further chaos in Nigeria to provide a floor for prices above $60, and we expect that Nigeria will continue to be a major issue in terms of supply security.

This supports our view that crude prices will soften as we move through the summer months.

Weather continues to be the key short term factor determining energy price direction.

With plenty of crude oil available to the market at present and some OPEC members signaling that lower oil prices may be acceptable to the group, the stage may well be set for further tests of support over the coming weeks.

With global inventory still at extremely low levels and particular concern over low product and crude oil inventory in the U.S., there is little obvious sign of any significant weakness.

What we are seeing is not a function of the world running out of oil. What we are seeing is the legacy of a very long period where investment has been far too low. The problem is getting the oil out of the ground and delivering it to consumers.

There's still going to be concern about potential hurricanes in the market for a few months. Crude output and refining are so tightly stretched that you don't need a big disruption to put the system under a lot of pressure.

The share of fossil fuels (in China's energy use) may fall but the absolute amounts consumed will grow.

Oil prices have fallen since the release of worse than expected US oil inventory figures on Wednesday but the potential for the Iranian situation to worsen during the course of the IAEA meeting currently underway is keeping oil market participants wary.

Oil markets sentiment remains dominated by the escalation of attacks in Nigeria.

At US$63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.

This is definitely not about buying up oil resources in order to ship the oil into China.

The U.S. refinery system has been showing signs of severe tightness. The shut-in of refining capacity from Katrina is then not so much a straw, but rather a large log on top of an already fully laden camel.

It's only a matter of time before geopolitical developments give the market another sharp tug. The chances of a benign settlement in coming months over the Iranian nuclear issue have receded in recent weeks.

It's easy to get sucked into weekly changes in inventory level, but behind that, we still have very strong demand.

It's because we've had such an explosive rise in heating oil prices -- I don't think we've ever seen such a dramatic increase in the spread between heating oil and crude.

The Nigerian situation has the potential to get a lot worse. It's going to run and run.

It's moving up and down. We've got an erosion of the idea that there has been massive demand destruction while ... at the same time you have got some pretty mild weather on both sides of the Atlantic.

After such a slow 2005 for Chinese oil demand an acceleration in growth looks highly likely in 2006 and this will exert further pressure on oil supply and prices.

India and China are big importers of crude oil, and they're both at the stage of their development where they're energy intensive, ... We have seen no pullback in demand in those countries, or in western countries --demand doesn't seem to be an issue that would help keep prices in check.

Iran matters more than is currently priced in and Iran's external relations remain the key wild card. We continue to see the situation as representing the major upside risk for oil prices this year.

The current weakness in the front month gasoline crack spreads is unprecedented and is sending a strong message to refiners about the need to sharply cut production.

The current weakness in front month petrol crack spreads is unprecedented and is sending a very strong message to refiners about the need to sharply cut production.

The catalyst for the move higher appears to have been the release of a weather forecast drawing attention to the likelihood of another cold winter, prompting a surge of buying interest in winter fuel markets on both sides of the Atlantic.