Peter Kretzmer Quotations

If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast.

We look for the report to confirm that economic activity remains strong. Retail spending will slow later this year but that hasn't shown up yet, and business investment should continue to be pretty strong as companies expand offices and factories.

Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion,

It assures that the Fed continues to not buck what was built into the futures contract, and will move by 25 basis points in September.

It is a strong number. There is little sign of a slowdown,

Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent,

The overall weaker GDP number coming from the trade data does give you a more bullish feeling on Treasuries,

We don't know if there is any meaning to the slowdown in these other categories. I wouldn't be too worried about it.

There hasn't been a lot of correlation between commodity prices and inflation since 1990.

With interest rates rising and demand for new home ownership slowing, it is likely that stronger demand for rental properties will push rental rates up at a higher pace.

The thinking that has surprised us has been that the markets and the Fed have been more concerned about the impact on inflation expectations than they've been about real growth.

Spending ended the quarter on a strong note, and that largely reflects the return of growth in auto sales. It's confirmation that spending was getting back on track.

As vehicle sales decline toward longer run levels beginning in August, consumer spending will slow.

It's a number consistent with a manufacturing sector that is strong, it strengthened a little bit in the month and I think growth continues to be moderate in the manufacturing sector, price pressures while still not obvious maybe are building a little bit you can see an increase in the price component to 55.1 that's indicative of some price pressure.

It's only vaguely predictive of what will happen with month-to-month consumer spending. It did increase dramatically in March, so some drop-back is not unexpected.

The numbers are a little better than we expected. Still, these things bounce around, and I think we'll probably see the unemployment figure break 4.5 percent next month.

The numbers are a little better than we expected,

On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends,

That's consistent with the idea that labor market conditions are not really improving yet. They're not getting worse, either, but they've only stabilized.

If crude oil prices keep on rising, the chances that consumption is going to be hurt further down the line rises. That means the Fed could be more gradual in raising rates.

The huge U.S. trade deficit may finally be stabilizing.

The economy will grow faster in the first quarter. Consumer spending is recovering.

The main point is that when they sit down, they will conclude that what we want to do is to continue to remove the accommodative policy,