Phil Dow Quotations

With today's big decline, this isn't a time to be concerned about additional downside but about what can go right in the coming months, primarily a gradual economic recovery,

One surprise in 2005 will be that business capital spending will be back in a big way especially as cash is at record levels on balance sheets and as companies ensure that they stay competitive.

My guess is that value will have its day,

My sense is that we may be at a really important transition point. Yesterday was a pretty important day. (The market) turned around on expanding volume, which indicated some real buying going on.

My sense is that January is going to be critical this year and I think you can see a good beginning to the month. I think you can see a positive January and my guess is that's how you're going to see money invested -- early and strongly.

Next year people will still be cautious. At the same time I anticipate corporate earnings and economic growth will come in better than expected,

If we have a series of big moves up, that would be a shock to the system, ... but, considering where are from a historical perspective, they could go up more gradually and not be a terrible headwind for the market.

From a cash flow standpoint and a value standpoint, the stock is quite attractive, ... I think those are all compelling arguments for long-term ownership.

If the focus on the market were to continue to go up even with bad news, that would indicate to me we're going to recover.

What I see is this pervasive opinion that there will be a better time to buy stocks and that we'll all know it when it comes. But it's never that way. The only way to participate in a market recovery is to be in it beforehand.

We've got to get through that and it's probably several months before we get a turnaround in any sectors,

The overwhelming trend will be more to position portfolios for the next year and my guess is that you'll see some of the stocks that have done well do better,

Guidant may see three to six months of tough competitive environment with competitors coming out with innovation, but after that we think they're going to really lead the marketplace with innovation,

I think the main impact of the election has been a degree of uncertainty. Once we know who the president will be it will be very much like Y2K -- it will come and go. You have to focus on sales and earnings, and those have been pretty robust.

I think a productive economy is the main thing people should take home with them. This is a unique period in American history. I think we'll look back on it as a time you wanted to own stocks rather than trade stocks. I think, secondarily, corporate America is showing good earnings reports. The second half of this year may be lower than the second half of last year, but they're still robust, probably in the high teens. I think if you focus on financial guide posts, that eventually will drive prices. I think you'll see the market in general do better as the year wears on.

I think it's still emotional and we've seen a manic depressive market. It has very little to do with the economy and my guess is it will wash out at some point ? I think we're getting close here.

I think we are in a recovery, but no one ever believes it ahead of time. To me, it's pretty encouraging to see volume expand when the market is going up. And while the news is not improving, the market seems to be holding up.

Right now, technology represents about 24 percent of the capitalization of the S&P, ... My guess is we're headed up to maybe the 20s or maybe 30 percent. If you look back historically, leading groups can capture that much of the market and I think technology's driving the market right now.

Rebuilding in the Gulf Coast will be a major focus following the destruction caused by hurricanes in the region. This is yet another demonstration of how resilient the economy has been since Sept. 11, 2001.

I think if you're looking for immediate gratification, there's probably no place that's real safe to buy,

I think most folks are under-diversified, and I'd like to see more names in a portfolio,

We're at the tenderloin of the earnings season and you are going to see powerful earnings reports from a lot of companies this week, and I think while we have got economic reports, earnings are going to be the focal point of the market right now, ... I think one feature that we've not talked a lot about is just the sentiment on the part of professional money managers. They have had to be kind of tentative the past two or three months with the Fed hiking. My guess is the one move they can't miss is a big up move here, and I think you could have a train-leaving-the-station kind of rally as institutions come into this marketplace.

wants to cut taxes and spend the surplus.

We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.

This year, the market is trying to tell you to be selective. If you look at the stocks that have moved, it really has not been just 30 big stocks; it's been all asset classes, all styles -- value and growth have delivered. The ones that are really getting fundamental financial guide, post-traction are those that are delivering. So my guess is selectivity is the key, and I think you've got to be in kind of best-of-breed solutions right now.

Try to buy those kinds of names when they're out of favor and hold on to them for long periods of time,

This year I was a little surprised (at) how negatively people viewed the economy and that's translated into a very cautious trading community on Wall Street, ... I think we did pretty well. We had a 4.4 percent growth in GDP. That's better than in recent history and better than some of our trading partners.

We think Nokia is clearly going to be the leader in handsets, ... And we think they've got a great shot at infrastructure as well.

We like Waters Corporation, ... It's a company that specializes in equipment for biotech research, great balance sheet, firm fundamentals. In financials, we would throw in Wells Fargo, TCF Financial Corporation, and Citigroup.

Bit by bit we are seeing the pieces of the economic mosaic come together that could support a sustained stock market rally, at least in the short term ... But in the longer term, there are still significant questions, no doubt about it.

The trading activity has a negative bias. The news has been negative and it's frustrating for investors and traders alike.

These software warnings have got people thinking that companies aren't spending their wads of cash. There may have been some unrealistic expectations, so I'm waiting to see how the rest of the tech sector does.

Once we get over the shock of the headline, I find it hard to argue that this is a negative.

You're going to see a lot of companies voluntarily take the smoke and mirrors out of their business, ... We shouldn't expect to see an immediate recovery, but eventually people will regain confidence.

This is the first evidence that things might be better than they thought, and I think traders don't quite know what to do. I think we've been conditioned to bad news -- it's like a beaten-up prize fighter. I think it's a dangerous time to look for more of the same, meaning looking for more negative.

This could be one of the more important positive tailwinds for the market,

There was just a tremendous amount of concern, and the market held, ... In fact if you look at third-quarter performance, it was pretty good across the board.

They have the best of breed kinds of companies in two really good industries. They have a natural gas pipeline company. In addition, a fiber optic network which will be 33,000 miles. Each have the wind at their back and we think the combined businesses conservatively are worth 60. Right now the stock trades for around 45. The company just announced a way to unlock that value with a spin-off of their Williams Communications Group. So we think it's just a matter of time before that stock reaches 60.

It's frightening if you chase performance. One reason why investors went into Japan is that they saw the markets perked up there.

It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.

If you don't believe America is going to grow and recover from this, obviously you should sell, ... My guess is it's going to accelerate our recovery.

If you have any kind of cut or a neutral bias, the markets will move higher.

If you look at the earnings so far, we've had on balance in-line or mildly positive surprises. Yet the guidance going forward had been guarded. If that continues, you're looking at a more subdued market response this week.

If you look at our portfolio that we run here with a three-year track record, basically it's equal to the S&P the last three years. This year we're down about 1.8, 1.9 percent versus an S&P that's significantly more than that down.

But he (Fed chairman Alan Greenspan) also said they're still worried and they're not through tightening.

Hopefully we'll see the economy slowing down by the summer and technology will take off.

You've got some pretty learned people right now predicting a Fed pause.

Anadarko is down relatively dramatically in the recent week, ... For value, we think the best name in the group is Chieftain International.

The main problem is things keep getting worse in the technology space.