Only Saudi Arabia has surplus capacity, and if its oil flow should be disrupted, it could bring a hopeless situation.
If we get draws in gasoline inventories, that could turn the market around.
Bearish (data) is widely expected and the market has already factored it in. But if it should show a recovery in demand, for example in gasoline, the market may rebound.
I can't see why it should have rallied $2 and I think it's coming back to reality -- that the short-term fundamentals look oversupplied,
If statistics show any signs of bullishness, prices will go higher. Technically, the market wants to test $65 a barrel.
There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks.
Last time, the market could handle uncertainty as there was a lot of slack but now because prices are so high, the market is not equipped to handle unplanned events.
Overall big picture is the market is still strong,
Statistics have shown demand was reduced on a year-on-year basis in September and October. Traders are concerned that they may end up seeing slower demand again in November.
It has a very high volatility and, short-term, there are plenty of inventories. However, the big concerns are Iran and Nigeria.
We have a two-sided market, which is fundamentally weak in the short-term due to inventories but in the long-term faces all this geopolitical risk.
Though there seems to be a lot of crude around, the long-term view is bullish. The U.S. Northeast will get colder and people may be concerned with middle distillate supplies.
Though there seems to be a lot of crude around, the long-term view is bullish, ... The U.S. Northeast will get colder and people may be concerned with middle distillate supplies.
Traders are now more concerned about the psychological impact of the hurricanes that has seriously caught American consumers, cutting back on consumption.
Even if there is a stock draw, unless it is substantially and unexpectedly high, I would not expect prices to go up above $60 as the near-term market is still heavily weighed down by high inventory levels and the warmer weather.
The scary thing is that the hurricane season is not over yet... so I don't see prices coming down.
The situation is unclear because output is still down in the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. refineries are having problems.
The short-term situation in the U.S. is not good. With the refinery turnaround season, products should be tight but crude imports are higher and there is warm weather.
Demand is so high and capacity is so low, we can go from comfortable to uncomfortable inventories within a month.
It's just profit-taking, the market needed to correct.
It's a crazy market. Prices look strong one week because of the draws (declines) in gasoline. If we get another big draw this week, the market will be even stronger.
It is unknown how extensive the damage to the refineries is.
It's no secret that refineries are the problem. There wouldn't be a problem if there was any slack in the system.
It looks like the market just doesn't want to go down. I think everybody is going to be watching stocks today.
That's the big question on everybody's mind, how much this (high prices) affected the demand.
Increasing concerns over supply shortages in the U.S because of the outages at refineries in the Gulf Coast and disruptions to refinery operations in France are giving support to the market.
Immediate fundamentals look bearish, ... Weather seems very mild and inventory levels are high.
Iran is playing a smart game of brinkmanship, they are pushing as far into the edge as they can take this and then pulling back.
However, tension has relaxed a bit and the market came off.
The market expects bearish inventories, with crude up by 1.5 million barrels, distillates down 1.7 million barrels and gasoline supplies unchanged.
The Iranian situation is kind of dropping into the background.
The geopolitical tensions are still there, but the market is getting desensitized to it.
The market pauses here because everyone is very cautious about new data,
The market is not terribly bullish in the short term because crude inventories are still high.
The market is a bit confused because the recent data showed a big build in gasoline inventory. But I think most people will realise that it'll probably be not until next week that we see real (inventory) numbers.
