I think the market has had a free swing at selling the (US) dollar and has shown to ignore a pretty good sell-off in the bond market.
Continued strength of commodity markets has been beneficial to the $A, but traders haven't been getting a lot of loving being long.
Markets always price for the worse, then row back when it doesn't happen, ... In this case, as soon as Rita was downgraded, the dollar jumped in a relief rally. It's as simple as that.
There's two things you know about the weather: One, you can't stop it; and two, you can't predict it. I wouldn't want to be heavily involved in foreign- exchange markets in next 24 hours.
Whether the minutes will tell us with any great clarity what lies ahead remains to be seen but at least for the moment the market is basically pricing in two more 25 basis points hikes.
The market is misreading and misunderstanding the story. The story is the capital account, not, I repeat not, the current account.