Steven Wood Payroll Quotations

After adjusting for the storm effects, both initial and continuing claims appear to be near their pre-hurricane levels, indicating that labor markets remain strong despite the weak October payroll employment report.

Payroll employment for October will plunge sharply and unemployment will continue to rise, likely breaching 6 percent by early next year,

Labor markets are very strong and payroll employment should rise by 200,000 or more in February. The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to raise interest rates.

New and continuing claims are at levels that historically have been associated with payroll employment gains of around 225,000. Labor markets are gradually improving.

These data are broadly consistent with payroll employment gains in the 200,000 to 250,000 (monthly) range.

The strong historical relationship between the level of the help-wanted index and the year-on-year growth of payroll employment has broken down completely.