People mostly see it as a sporting event. In a way, it doesn't matter if they've seen the movies. They watch it so they can win their office betting pools. They watch it to see stars make fool of themselves, or show their insecurities by gushing: 'You LIKE me!
Everyone in the world is picking Reese Witherspoon but me. I'm betting on the last-movie-seen theory. When there are upsets at the Oscars, they tend to be obscure movies that were probably the last DVD screener on the Academy's stack.
If I were betting on it, I'd say he could probably pull it off.