Morally and constitutionally, the king is getting weaker.
He has two choices. One, come to an understanding with political parties accepting the role of a constitutional monarch. Two, go totally repressive as a dictator and risk the monarchy's future in the long run.
That will most certainly disrupt the November polls and will also weaken state institutions, which the Maoists want.
There is likely to be a sharp polarization on whether to retain a ceremonial monarchy or retain the monarchy at all.
There is increasing defiance, there are more and more people coming to participate.
Emotions are building up and more and more people are coming out and openly opposing the king.
Things are headed for confrontation if he doesn't respond to what people are demanding. Then we would get into a phase of bloodshed and more repression.
People are tired of strikes and disruptions. There is a sense of fatigue.
An end to the ceasefire would naturally mean resumption of violence. But there is still some hope that the Maoists will continue with their unilateral ceasefire for some time.
This emergency debate is based on political rivalry. They're playing power politics with the emergency.
This movement has taken on an anti-monarchy dimension. That's a new component of the whole thing.
This is the only factor that raises the hope that the Maoists would extend the ceasefire.
They haven't come up with a vision for what if the monarchy is abolished. To the extent of opposing the king, the seven parties are together. He is the cement that holds them together. I doubt whether if the king were not there, they would be unified.
That kind of traditional respect is over. A kind of momentum is building up.
It was a missed opportunity. He was a royal but he didn't expect to be king, so he was also a commoner. He could have given a new thrust to the monarchy.
They demonstrate their military strength to give a message that their willingness to be part of the (peace) process is not due to weakness.
The king's move meets one important aspect - the end of autocratic rule. Why are the parties not accepting? I think they are a bit scared of the crowd because they are not in direct communication with the crowd.
You will have a fully empowered government with a sense of direction and purpose.
The gap between the crowd, which is quite ferocious, and the political leaders is wide. They're not quite comfortable facing the crowd and interacting with them.
The level of defiance is unprecedented - it never happened before, even in 1990.
The king has only one choice -- accept the reality and postpone the municipal elections as it alone would create a minimum ground for a dialogue with political parties.