Hugh Johnson Ark Quotations

I tell my clients to look at the market once a week. It does a lot for your judgment if you take away the day-to-day swings.

The market needs to let earnings catch up -- wait until we get closer to the year 2000, when we can feel comfortable that the market is not overvalued. If the market stayed the same while earnings rose, then price-earnings ratios would be so darn high.

The market is worried that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates well into 2006 and possibly make a policy mistake. If you look at housing starts they're very strong. Everyone knows the unemployment rate is low and the Fed is uncomfortable with that.

The markets are moving to more reasonably reflect expectations for what lies ahead in 2005.

The markets are getting a little nervous . On balance, investors want to see this president and the tax cuts preserved.

The market is not doing well. At long last, it is doing what it should do in responding to the rises in interest rates.

The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.

The good news was good enough to more than offset the worries about wages and Federal Reserve policy. There is an emotional component to the market today. Some speculative spirits are starting to stir.

The most important thing is that the stock market had declined to levels that were arguably undervalued, and that many aggressive managers also realized there was a great deal of pessimism.

What's driving the market is speculation. You put together actual year earnings, you also calculate price-to-earnings multiples right now and what investors are paying for is really out of whack. It's too high.

Usually, when you have a stock market mania, it's driven largely by individual investors borrowing money to buy stocks at prices that are too high. And usually, when a bubble becomes unwound, it's because of margin calls.

If there's no bounce, it's investors saying that the market has not reached a level that accurately reflects what's ahead for the economy and earnings.

It is encouraging that the market has been able to hold together. The overall message is that the events in Southeast Asia will in time have an impact on the U.S. economy, but not a major impact in 1998. And that is really good news.

We had a very solid move up in stocks in the first quarter. There's a good chance that what the markets will be left with is a great deal of uncertainty or even the belief that more rate increases are coming.

When the markets struggled for a technical bounce in the morning, that was investors sending a message that we're either heading toward an economic recession or toward a profits recession.

Hardware, software and semiconductors are the three top-performing groups right now, and there has been a decline in oil prices. These things are pushing the markets up.

Ordinarily, we would have a technical bounce at this level. But then the question is, have you seen a bear market bottom? I don't know if we have at this point.

It's pretty clear that companies have made money and their cash positions are high and this should help the market stage an advance in November and December.

This is a market that's become very, very defensive, ... One thing I noticed is a move back to the defensive side.

The market does have a valuation problem. But I don't put much stock in any valuation model, including my own. It's very rational -- it tells you when the stock market is overvalued or undervalued -- but it doesn't work.

The market does have a valuation problem, ... But I don't put much stock in any valuation model, including my own. It's very rational -- it tells you when the stock market is overvalued or undervalued -- but it doesn't work.

If you're going to bet on economists and strategists on one hand, and the markets on the other, take the markets every time.

What we're seeing from Lehman is that market conditions improved through the summer, and that conditions are likely to continue improving. That's showing up in the earnings and in the detail of their reports.

The focus has been on earnings, and when you get something like Aetna, then that's going to help the market. But one of these days, that focus is going to shift to inflation and interest rates. And the Fed is going to have to get it absolutely right in order for this market to manage even small gains.

There's an old adage on Wall Street: bull markets climb a wall of worry. Needless to say, there are a lot of worries out there.

The earnings have been pretty good so far, but there's an ambiguity in the market about them, because you'll see Amazon or Microsoft disappointing and then others beating.

Today the market is pausing a bit, given the strong performance last week. There is lot of acquisition activity, which is giving the market some lift, particularly because oil prices are stable.

Today the market is pausing a bit, given the strong performance last week.

Is the possibility of a tax cut and a rate cut enough to eliminate or neutralized the concerns about the economy and earnings, letting the January effect play out, ... Watch the overall market and if the shift from defensive stocks to economically-sensitive stocks continues, it may be enough to turn the tide.

When you see buying in that (technology) sector in a bear market, it implies that there are investors out there who see improvement around the corner, and it's usually technology and cyclical stocks that lead the market out of a downtrend. The bias towards Friday's data may be that the data will be consistent with the view that the economy is showing some expansion.

It's still way too close a race to call, and I think the market will reflect the fact that it's still up in the air,

One of the most important signs of a bull market is when the bull market manages very, very bad news like we've had today. So in that sense, you've got a very encouraging performance today.

One of the most important factors driving bonds, clearly, and stocks, less clearly, is the expectation that the euro will fall further, ... It is attracting capital from European markets to the U.S.

I expected the market to inch or edge forward. I wouldn't have expected this in my wildest dreams.

Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.

The one thing you don't want to ignore is the stock market itself,

As the bull market progressed, analysts became more optimistic about next year's earnings. Now, it's the extent to which companies will hit their numbers for 2004 that will make next week so important for the market.

There are no real hiding places, ... But I would tell investors they shouldn't get too scared by what's happening. Don't forget that 70 percent of the time, stocks are going up. I don't know where the market is going in 30 days, but I know where it's going in 30 years.

I get worried about so much optimism and the fact that the market is overvalued,

When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.

You have to be careful about prejudging this - I've seen so many investors burned at the stake thinking things like 'Value is about to come back,' ... Let the market tell you what to do. Don't tell the market what to do.

After seeing these reports, it's likely the Fed will...raise rates at the measured pace the market is used to.

It's a reasonably accepted conclusion that the Fed will raise rates in both June and August; that's what the market has discounted. I don't know if Friday's employment report will change that, no matter what it says.

The underlying theme that's been driving the market is that inflation is a problem and the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates, and that's not good news.

There's been a great deal of turmoil, ... There's widespread bond market pessimism and at the other side of the equation, there's too much stock market optimism.

There's fairly widespread anticipation that the economic numbers this week will be solid, though not great, and I think the market is reflecting that.

Mutual funds are clearly a very big reason why the stock market is declining, ... This is the other side of the mountain.

There's no news, nothing I see on the immediate horizon, next week, that would shake the market out of its current malaise or end the summer doldrums. There are so many things to worry about, and investors are therefore sitting on their hands, not making any new, major commitments.

It's a year-end rally in anticipation that there will be some new money coming into the market as we start the new year.

Tomorrow, the market will probably continue upward driven by the dollar, but it won't go up much because of caution before the employment figures.

There are a growing number of investors who believe the market has hit bottom. Investors with cash are feeling pressure to get in. Good markets beget good markets.

Something has got to give, ... Crude prices will have to come down or there will have to be some assurance on interest rates before the market will be energized.

Speaking of financial markets as a whole --stocks, bonds and the dollar -- 'volatile' is not strong enough a word to describe them.

This market is trying to rally. If the Fed reduces interest rates by 50 basis points, it will touch off a rally, but if we get a rally it will be guarded.

This thing that bothers me is you get into markets like this and they can go from being overvalued to extremely overvalued,

The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.

The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.

The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.

It's very cold-hearted, but war has generally been good for the markets and the economy.

Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.

It seems so tied to the price of oil, that it's very hard to forecast what stocks will do next. On balance the message of the markets for the last nine trading sessions, including today, seems to have shifted to say that the price of oil is taking a chunk out of consumer spending.

Ordinarily you would expect the stock market to rise or do better, but it's not, and I think the reason it's not is it's being held in check by high oil prices.

When you say the stock market is overvalued, you imply that the stock market is going down. But there is a touch of lunacy in every bull market -- stocks can become even more overvalued. A rational investment policy in an irrational world is suicide.

Although the expectations we've been hearing indicate a prolonged decision, the markets are telling us that the election will be resolved quickly.

Nobody knows where the market is going. You just have to take your best bet.

The fundamental premise in this business is you cannot be stuck in this business. You can buy stocks for the long haul, but if the market breaks down, you're going to suffer. You're going to pay for it.

I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.

Every market sector has a lot of good companies in it.

The conditions for the restarting of the bull market, or the start of a new bull market, which is how you should look at it, those conditions do not exist. Not yet, and that's why the markets went down yesterday despite what the Fed said,

It confirms that as we started the fourth quarter the economy continues to slow, ... At the same time that the economy is slowing, there is ongoing tightness in the labor markets and ongoing upward pressure on wages.

It injects some uncertainty. The worry is the Chinese economy will slow too much, and that will send markets down worldwide.

I think the market has managed the inevitable profit-taking very well, but there's still a lot of skepticism out there,

Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).

The reason the (stock) market is struggling is that concerns about the economy and earnings are deepening, ... We don't see anything that says the current profit recession is going to end.