There is evidence that the weakening dollar also is beginning to have a positive effect. This is a good sign both for the future of our exports and for our hope to narrow the trade gap.
I think the Fed will act aggressively. The timing remains to be seen, but both Main Street and Wall Street are pleading for further rate cuts, so I think Greenspan will respond. The sooner and deeper a rate cut, the sooner consumer and business confidence should improve.
Higher oil prices and the stimulus coming from additional spending after Katrina both suggest that Fed would be on the side of raising rates.