Oscar Gonzalez Job Quotations

While improving consumer confidence probably suggests downside protection against a slump in spending, it does not suggest we will see spending take off. We still need a sustained improvement in the jobs market, including a significant decrease in unemployment with a solid increase in real wages.

If, as expected, the October employment report shows a sharp rise in unemployment and a sharp decline in job growth, it could be a crushing blow to confidence. Having a job is probably the single biggest factor in consumers having confidence.

Jobs are a lagging indicator, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is in fact on the mend. We still expect it will continue to improve through the rest of the year.