Anthony Chan Um Quotations

The much stronger-than-expected durable goods number is significant because it comes on the heels of a sizable gain the previous month,

The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.

These numbers tell us that the underlying productivity surge observed in recent years remains alive and well. If productivity could rise by 1.1 percent during a sluggish growth environment, imagine what can happen once the U.S. reverts back towards trend economic growth.

These numbers give us an indication of the trend, and the trend is still telling us we're in improvement mode, not in breakout mode, where job growth is surging,

These numbers give the Fed license to cut rates as much as necessary.

These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.

These numbers clearly tell me we have not hit bottom in the economy.

The consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio is much higher than it was in the '50s, so you can't argue that there is as much excess capacity on the borrowing side as there was in the '50s,

The core (inflation measure), while it's up, still looks very contained. This just keeps the Federal Reserve interest rate hike engine humming along after June 30.

Consumers at this juncture are fighting the forces of the economic slowdown with patriotism, ... As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, this challenge will become greater.

Consumers at this juncture are fighting the forces of economic slowdown with patriotism. As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, this challenge will become greater.

Consumers are stressed. Consumers are at the crossroads.

Consumer confidence warned us already that this would be mild recession,

Many economists will end up eating humble pie this weekend because, while the relationship between the weekly initial unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls is fairly robust, we should also realize that it is not always a stable relationship from month to month.

We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.

The fact that U.S. officials cannot rule out further attacks will keep consumers here and abroad in a deeply uncertain state.

Outside of energy, the consumer is fine. That's why growth this year will be weaker than last year, and it will be weaker next year than this year.

Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.

To the extent that consumer sentiment reacts to movements in the unemployment rate rather than the meager increase in non-farm payrolls, we have to take this ... report as delivering good news to the troops.

The bottom line is that consumers experienced a soft patch in the first quarter and they appear to be emerging from it,

The bottom line is, the labor market is going to continue to show further deterioration, not because it's getting worse, but because of mechanics. As the unemployment rate gets higher, the consumer is going to consider that.

The market doesn't want to see too much exuberance on the part of consumers in order to keep the central bank at bay.

We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.

Our analysis suggests the pace of consumer spending is likely to slow in the near-term future,

The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.

The jump was a bounce back from November.

The jump in payrolls this month shows that although the economy clearly went through a wider-than-expected soft patch, it does not appear as though the shortfall in growth was permanent,

The key number was not the headline (overall CPI) number,

The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.

When the economy is creating 200,000 new jobs a month, we can tolerate $65 to $70 a barrel oil. It masks the impact on consumer confidence.

Those are the numbers that confirmed in their minds that we were in recession.

Weaker consumer confidence threatens to reverse the course of the recovery. That's why policy makers will be so cautious. They don't really have to worry about the economy's fundamentals, but they do have to worry about confidence.

The housing market is resilient, still going strong, but it would be a mistake to ignore the weakness in existing sales and assume everything is copasetic.

Although the current growth environment is not impressive, positive growth is still positive growth. On the darker side of things, however, we must admit that the economy still lacks the growth momentum needed to correct many of the labor market ailments.

With the surprise jump in new home sales and the outsized rise in existing home sales, we now see that widespread talk of the demise of our moderate economic recovery has been somewhat exaggerated.

This week's CPI will seal (the Fed's decision). If we get a number at consensus or a little above, that'll tip it towards a June increase.

This week's CPI will seal (the Fed's decision), ... If we get a number at consensus or a little above, that'll tip it towards a June increase.

We will see a moderation ? but not a collapse ? in consumer spending,

Even though the headline number came in much stronger, it isn't the number investors are going to be focusing on.

Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.

The momentum going into 2006 is clearly healthy. We will be able to withstand weaker growth for the rest of the quarter and almost not miss a heart beat.

The equity market has quite a considerable number of dark clouds hovering over it.

The headline number is encouraging, but if you strip out the volatile components and look at core growth, it's telling you we're turning the corner, but we're not running around the corner.

I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.

I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.

The outsized gain in housing starts was influenced by the same variable dominating most of the other headline stats like the retail sales and industrial production, namely weather. Everyone knows that housing starts is a volatile number that generally reports wide swings.

It reflects some loss of momentum from January. Activity in January was a bit too euphoric given the underlying economic fundamentals. This month is more realistic.

It's a healthy development. It tells us the underlying momentum of the economy was stronger, so we can afford to take a bigger hit in the second quarter and still have respectable growth for the year.

It appears as though the level of job security is rising and that's a very encouraging thing to consumers, ... Consumers are spending more on general merchandise as well as on eating out. People don't go out to restaurants a lot if they're not feeling good about their economic situation.

Betting against the U.S. consumer is always a losing bet.

The CPI report continues to be encouraging. These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.

The CPI report continues to be encouraging, ... These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.

This terrible tragedy is certain to severely dampen consumer confidence and hence have the possibility of shutting down the consumer.

As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.

Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.

Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)

This provides a big shot in the arm to the notion that geopolitical concerns were holding back the economy. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen such a big pop. This probably exaggerates how excited consumers will be after all is said and done, but it gets the direction right.

The orders component should jump out and catch your eye. We're still in expansion mode, and recovery is in no jeopardy of derailing, but it's not racing away from us.

The orders component should jump out and catch your eye, ... We're still in expansion mode, and recovery is in no jeopardy of derailing, but it's not racing away from us.

On the price deflator the numbers are a little bit stronger, so I am not as excited about that price number for GDP.

Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs .

When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.

We still have a labor market that's deteriorating, and today's numbers epitomize that. We're going to continue to see deterioration, which will pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and keep the economy soft for another quarter or two.

I remain more confident that the consumer will take great comfort in knowing that our government is truly taking care of business.

I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.

I think the numbers minimize the probability of any action this year.

The resilient consumer and an attempt by businesses to jump-start and keep the economy going -- the combination of those two forces gave us a bounce-back in economic activity.

The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.

keeps the Fed tightening engine humming along and does raise the possibility that a more aggressive posture could be adopted somewhere down the line if the inflation indicators continue to surprise to the upside.

We know those numbers were contaminated because of the hurricanes. After you adjust for the hurricanes, you come away with a fairly strong employment outlook.

There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.

There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.

Continuing claims numbers are very closely tied to unemployment, and they are skyrocketing.

Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.

I would say that momentum (in the housing market) probably will not continue, since you don't see the same strength in permits that you do in construction,

What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.

I don't think the recovery is in danger. But I think what we have here is a situation where the Federal Reserve will probably look at the numbers a lot more closely. If we see another two or three economic statistics that surprise us, yes the Fed can pause and not raise rates in August.

If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.

Next week's producer price index or consumer price index could tip the Fed in favor of a June hike if they're on the upside.

This report is certainly consistent with an economy that is trying to make a recovery, but a weak recovery. When you start to back out the volatile components, it's not all that weak. We're picking it up, but these numbers tell us the economy will come back slowly.

The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,

I think the big jump in Japan gives a nice tail wind to the equity markets this morning.

This confidence is encouraging and takes some of the pressure off the terrible number we saw with retail sales.

These jobs are not lost forever. When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.

These jobs are not lost forever, ... When you take into account everything coming through the pipeline, all Federal aid, all the insurance money, there will be a lot of jobs created by recovery efforts. Remember the GDP of New Orleans was about $40 billion annually before the storm. We'll easily see more than that being pumped into the system.

People watching the Chinese trying to generate a soft landing think that, if it doesn't work in five minutes, it must not be working. We're not seeing immediate results, but I think it's incorrect to assume that, a year or a year and a-half from now, we're not going to see some of these effects. We will.

The number tells me a recession is coming, but it will be relatively mild in the wake of all the stimulus coming. But I would caution investors not to be so complacent as to think this could be bottom. It's going to be a lot uglier in the fourth quarter.

That's a great number that basically calms a lot of the fears out there.

Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,

These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.

I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.

That report certainly reveals the recession is not over. The gains we had in September are not sustainable and illustrate why the central bank has to continue to lower rates. At this juncture, the easing of rates basically is serving as a consumer confidence booster.

All the focus is on the core number. The Fed said yesterday that energy has not worked its way down to core consumer prices.

These numbers are suggesting that a future Federal Reserve tightening will be coming to a theater near you quite soon.

These numbers are essentially telling us that retail sales were artificially boosted by zero-percent financing. These numbers are not going to do anything to discourage the Fed from thinking that the balance of risk in the economy is toward weakness.

You've got to ask yourself, will we have another 100-to-150 basis-point decline in mortgage rates? ... I would say that's a stretch, so it's not going to be a reliable source of funds for consumers -- we'll need to see the economy turning around.