Carol Thorp Rice Quotations

Prices went up throughout Southern California this past week, but not at as rapid a pace as we've seen during other gas price spikes. It's likely that increases will continue for at least the next few weeks.

Prices rose 4 cents today (in San Diego), and that is not unusual lately. There is profit-taking; no one can avoid that conclusion.

Prices remain on the rise but there is hope that we may be nearing a peak. Wholesale gas prices have averaged about $2.60 per gallon for the past week. Taxes add about 60 cents to that, transportation and dealer profit is another 5-10 cents. Prices in the L.A./Long Beach area could peak at $3.25-$3.30 by mid-May then they could decline after Memorial Day.

Prices have fallen 25 percent since their record highs in September. After the New Year, motorists can expect prices to begin rising as refineries cut back production to conduct their annual maintenance and begin the process of producing the summer blend of gas, which must be completed by the end of February.

Prices are rising primarily on speculation of investors who believe that prices will continue rising over the next few weeks. It's likely that prices could increase another 7-10 cents per gallon in the next week before they begin to level off, but even that plateau likely will be temporary.

The month-to-month gas price hike was driven primarily by increasing oil prices and speculation over adequate production. Higher gasoline and oil inventories have eased these concerns. However, when gas stations begin to sell the more expensive summer blend fuel in March, prices may start to increase again.

Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped across the country and West Coast gasoline inventory is strong. That actually led to a slight decline in pump prices in the last few days, although overall averages are still higher than at this time last week. However, oil industry analysts expect wholesale prices to start heading up again once the more expensive summer-grade fuel starts going on the market at the end of February.

In the last couple of days, prices have been going up by 2 or 3 cents in a 24-hour period. This is likely the same type of rapid price increase that has happened in Southern California every spring of this decade.

Motorists might see prices stabilize over the next week or two, but that could only be a temporary pause.

Motorists might seen prices stabilize over the next week or two, but that could only be a temporary pause. Upward pressure on gas prices will increase in February due to reduced production as refineries rush to finish the changeover from producing winter grade to summer grade fuel before the March 1 deadline.

Motorists have not seen the end of price increases. Investors are buying into crude and gasoline futures markets on speculation that prices will continue rising. Retail prices still have not caught up with wholesale price increases. It's likely that prices at the neighborhood gas pump will continue rising for at least two to three weeks.

Motorists can expect two to three weeks more of price increases that could send the average price of regular as high as $3.10 to $3.20 per gallon.

Refiners are selling off all supplies of winter grade fuel in advance of next Tuesday's deadline. That has put extra supply on the market, sending prices lower. Motorists can expect to see prices stay near current levels for a couple of weeks. After that, with the extra winter grade supply used up, motorists should expect more upward pressure on retail gas prices.

Gas prices in most areas began heading back up on Monday after dropping for about three weeks. Traditionally, Southern California has experienced gas price spikes during the spring, and oil industry analysts believe this could be the beginning of another one.

Gas prices dropped at a slightly slower pace than the prior week, which can be attributed to level crude oil prices and the increased demand over the holiday weekend. However, analysts tell us there is still some room for prices to drop in the coming weeks.

Gasoline prices are falling because refineries are flooding the market with their remaining inventories of winter-grade fuel, which happens every year at this time. The slight downward trend should continue for a couple of weeks. Refineries begin shipping summer-grade fuel on March 1st. After then, motorists can expect to see prices turn upward again.

The relationship between supply and demand is relatively balanced in California, so normally we should see stable prices. However, speculators in oil and gasoline markets have kept prices high, and that has filtered down to local gas pumps. The trend for higher gas prices is expected to continue for the next several weeks.

Over the next few weeks we'll be up to where we were before Hurricane Katrina, and that's going to put more gasoline on the market. We think that will cause gas prices to start coming down over the Memorial Day weekend.

Since then we have seen a gradual increase until prices are now equal to a month ago.

Nationally, production is down and demand is up compared to last year. In addition, many regions of the country are having trouble getting sufficient supplies of ethanol, which is used in new formulas for gas. Uncertainty about supply has lifted gasoline to near-record prices on the spot market and that filters down to the neighborhood gas pump.

We're in the time of year when steep price increases are common, but this year prices are being boosted by speculation about whether there will be sufficient gasoline supplies for later in the year. It may be several weeks before a clear picture develops on the nation's gasoline production, but in the meantime, prices could climb to near $3 per gallon.

We don't know if that's going to cause some people to change their minds. Historically when gas prices have gone up, people have not changed their minds.

The speculators on the market are pushing the price up - they're worried about oil coming from Iraq, they're worried about what Iran could do to affect the price, they're worried about labor unrest in Nigeria.