It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs. But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose.
It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs, ... But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose.
Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
I think that the U.S. consumer is hot to trot. I think you're looking at a first quarter that's going to easily top 10 percent (in retail sales increase) on an annualized basis.
I think that the U.S. consumer is hot to trot, ... I think you're looking at a first quarter that's going to easily top 10 percent (in retail sales increase) on an annualized basis.
Corporate America is just a productivity machine. Non-farm businesses were able to boost their output at a 3.5 percent annual rate and cut payroll hours at an over 2 percent rate. So 40 percent of the productivity increase came from the backside of the workforce.
When rates back up, growth slows quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
When rates back up, growth slows ... quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
When rates back up, growth slows . . . quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
Out of those five times, the economy fell into recession 100 per cent of the time.
These increases were in a sense artificially produced by shifting incentives as auto companies try to back away from incentives and instead lower sticker prices.
This has nothing to do with whether the yield is too high or too low or whether it's over or undervalued. And it certainly has nothing to with foreign central bank activity. It's about the business cycle.
You need more than just the ability to spend, you need the incentive to spend. You're only going to start spending if you can prove to your board that your investment is going to pay off.
Although an inverted yield curve does not always imply an economic recession, it has predicted a profit recession 100 per cent of the time.
If the economy continues to muddle through at around 2 percent annualized growth, we could very well slip into deflation in the next two years,
The earnings season continues to be a decent one, with Nokia beating ... expectations, though Ericsson missed.