Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue.
The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.
The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.
Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.
July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications so a correction was due. This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening.
We doubt this can be sustained as the reality of $2.60- plus sinks in. For now, though, it looks good.
If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,