Richard Yamarone Fed Quotations

I firmly believe that the Fed does not know what it's going to do, certainly not at this point, ... the big linchpin in this whole thing.

History tells us that the Fed has always overshot its tightening goal. Central bankers like to know the cork is firmly implanted in the bottle so that the inflation genie doesn't sneak out.

I think for all intent and purposes, you really have to rule out a Fed rate hike on October 5,

Looking at where we are right now, I don't think the Fed raises rates until 2005.

The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.

There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,

For all intents and purposes the Fed is going to move at a measured pace whether that word is in there or not. And now, the longer end of the yield curve should react more to Fed moves.

The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?

The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil.

The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures.

Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.