Retail spending was much stronger than anticipated. Although some of these gains were due to post-hurricane spending, it appears that consumers are not yet ready to throw in the towel.
This stronger consumer sentiment may yet translate into solid core consumer spending for the holiday season.
Inventory building is slightly stronger in January and February than it was in 4Q, suggesting that inventory investment is likely to add modestly to Q1 GDP growth,
Inventories are going to be largely neutral for economic growth in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, as businesses ramp up production to rebuild inventories, that will mean more hiring, more production and a stronger economic environment.
The Committee is placing more weight on current data releases and, therefore, less weight on forecasts of economic activity and inflation. What I'm foreseeing is that the Fed is going to keep on tightening due to the economy being stronger in the first half of the year.