Barclays Capital Quotations

The possibility for a non-benign solution to the dispute leaves open the risk for higher prices in the short term.

U.S. payrolls are much more pivotal today than in prior months. A strong outcome would encourage the market in its increasingly optimistic view of the US economy and hawkish view of the Fed.

Much of gold's recent rally has been supported by positive investor sentiment in light of rising oil prices, inflation concerns and geopolitical volatility, and we do not expect these supportive macro-factors to dissipate in the near term.

Given the renewed interest in commodities and positive sentiment in gold, price risks for the (platinum group metals) are still very much on the upside, in our view.

Given the overall positive sentiment and an apparent lack of interest to short the marker aggressively, we see further room on the upside.

What is clear is that despite OPEC's extremely high current output levels there is little sign of a large surplus forming in the market just yet.

Unless upcoming speeches indicate that other FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members are beginning to shift their views, we do not believe Olson's dissent represents the start of a broader movement within the FOMC toward slowing the pace of rate hikes.

Italy's problems appear so deeply rooted that the next government, whatever its complexion, is unlikely to do little more than make a start at solving them.

It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.

OPEC production is falling in any case thanks to Nigerian losses, and the threat from Niger Delta militants to oil exports has the potential to get even more serious.

Physical buying could help provide some support, but it is still unclear at which price levels they would re-emerge in significant quantities.

Recent hurricane damage in the U.S. has impacted natural gas more than any other energy market.

Market conditions will remain nervous and there is a general sense of uncertainty over the next big price move.

While we think such high prices are not justifiable by gold 's commodity fundamentals in terms of market balance and inventory levels, the combination of a surge in oil prices above $70/barrel, geopolitical tensions and strong momentum is dominating at present, and further gains cannot be ruled out.

We continue to question how close the situation now is to either complete company withdrawal from the area or a strike by workers due to the obvious lack of security.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, but the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that upside risk to this forecast is limited.

We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.

U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen further below their five-year average, while U.S. oil demand remains strong. Our estimates of current market balances indicate a significant tightening relative to a year ago.

While strikes in Chile rarely tend to last for very long, any disruption to production or shipments will lend support to copper prices given the strong demand environment and lack of spare material.

Under the microscope it is clear that an important watershed is approaching. The short-term downtrend is about to come into conflict with the medium-term uptrend. Typically we would side with the longer-term move but the length of the downtrend from the high is a major cautionary note.

The recent move above $1,000 is mostly driven by speculative buying.

Uncertainty over the eventual resolution of this conflict would help discourage aggressive selling interest.

Don't miss the boat, again. Supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive for the price up-trends to persist.

Crude oil was the one thing not in short supply. What the U.S. lacks is oil products, especially gasoline, and it lacks the spare capacity to refine more crude.

Some (traders) are suffering risk-fatigue and are not inclined to respond to anything much beyond the grind of the weekly U.S. numbers and have little interest in the geopolitical context or the global context of the data.

Sooner or later the seriousness of the situation for U.S. product supply will begin to show in the weekly U.S. data releases, though it may still be too early for that today.

Range-bound trade looks likely to continue for some time, though we see potential for prices to break on the upside after this consolidation phase.

Prices should continue to consolidate in the wide range of $535-$555 in the near term, though the underlying sentiment remains bullish and downside appears limited at present.

The oil system, both upstream and downstream, is being run close to sustainable limits and the tensions created by the absence of slack are now the key driver of prices.

Speculative activity will continue to dominate price movements, with fund interest based on justifications such as economic slowdown, inflationary concerns and hopes of Asian central bank buying and soaring physical demand.

a number of proposals contained in the draft policy would actively discourage foreign direct investment and the associated financing.

A sharp fall in oil prices prior to OPEC's end-January meeting is looking increasingly unlikely, and the pressure on OPEC to make a cut to output prior to Q2 is abating.

There remains room for further upside this year, with fund interest continuing to be justified on...inflationary concerns, fears of economic slowdown, hopes of large Asian central bank buying.

The release of strategic reserves contains a very large component of unneeded crude oil and does little to directly impact on the actual supply gap of U.S. oil products.

This market continues to look very strong ... Enthusiasm among speculators is founded on its constructive fundamentals and general interest across commodities.

Absent new developments in credit, the continued synthetic demand, the hedge fund bid, strength in the leveraged loan market, stability in U.S. Treasuries, and credit appetite from Asia will likely continue to support the market overall.

It is worth noting that prices are getting little support from the physical markets despite relatively steady prices of late, which suggest that threat of further correction remains.

The objective of the operation seems to be to create a few large-sized benchmark bonds and over time buy back the smaller issues.

After the very strong pickup in U.S. growth data over the past few weeks, we believe the risk of a sharp slowdown in commodity demand looks negligible in the short term.

After the very strong pick-up in U.S. growth data over the past few weeks, we believe the risk of a sharp slowdown in commodity demand looks negligible in the short term.

The faltering uptrend...warns of choppy times ahead. However, we do not think we have seen the peak for oil and while prices remains supported above $56.50 we are targeting $75 later in the year.

The continued strong performance of commodity investments, allied to the desire of many institutional investors to diversify their equity and fixed income exposures, suggests that commodity investments are likely to continue growing strongly in 2006.

Indeed, another push lower in the gold-to-silver ratio is still possible, with the next target level around the April 2004 low of 51.

In all, the disputes serve as further notice, if needed, that the Atlantic refining system is operating on the edge at the moment.

The market could be subject to further weakness in the near term towards $535. The technical charts will be closely monitored in this correction phase for any signs of a broader trend reversal.

The market continues to appear well-supported and we see the overall macroeconomic and geopolitical environment as favorable for gold.

The dichotomy in the US market between tight products and flush crude has become more pronounced.

The current high levels of U.S. inventory is of little comfort given that it is the product of an unusually high level of seasonal maintenance. Although crude stocks are rising, product stocks are falling and U.S. oil demand is growing strongly.

The markets seem to be pricing in close to zero probability of something going wrong.

The loss in potential gasoline output from these plants alone is expected to be of the order of 600,000 barrels a day.