Ian Shepherdson Clear Quotations

Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.

Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways.  But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,

There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.

The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.

The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.

The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market, ... So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.

The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.