Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.
The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
It now seems appropriate to start thinking about a fed funds rate as low as 4 percent by the summer.
Inventories remain very low and will add to third quarter and fourth quarter growth, too.
This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,