Ian Shepherdson Output Quotations

Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.

Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.

As the newspapers remind us every day, job layoffs are still high, but the point is that they now appear to be slowing, ... The worst is over, and the decline in output and employment will soon slow.

This is a strong report: Manufacturing output has strengthened markedly in the past two months, following a lackluster showing in February.

It is still too early to call the end of the manufacturing slump because the stability of July output might be little more than a seasonal effect, ... this report probably means the worst is over.