Ian Shepherdson View Quotations

We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,

With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly.

Our view is that home sales will slide through the summer, dragging housing starts down into the fall. But this is still no more than a forecast; mortgage applications are still very strong.

There should be no doubt that Mr. Greenspan's view has changed; he now believes the economy is turning rather than just approaching the turn,

Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.

The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.

The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.